Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2002 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

71%10 of 14L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 10 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 1, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 1, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 1, hit, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 5, missed, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 1, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 0, hit, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 2, missed, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 2, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 0, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 3, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 39 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 0, hit, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 1.5 without him: 29 of 54; with him: 33 of 55 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 11 of 13; with him: 51 of 96 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 7; with him: 57 of 102 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jaylin Williams: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 11 of 23; with him: 51 of 86 (109 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 10 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut
Jaylin WilliamsFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Gilgeous-Alexander didn't play the Jan 9 meeting; steals the last time Gilgeous-Alexander faced them: 4 (Dec 22, 2025)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 10 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Jalen Williams · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 71%; 10 of 14
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −179 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −169, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3312 books	—	4/14
+1342 books	−2002 books	10/14
+4262 books	—	13/14
+12002 books	—	14/14
+25001 book	—	14/14

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+134	−179Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+148Best	−200
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −205 → −200 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits