Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

CLE @ OKC · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under42.5

Under 42.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1255 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 42.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 42.5 without him: 26 of 53; with him: 30 of 56 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 42.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 49 of 97 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 42.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 52 of 103 (109 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
CLE allow 94.1 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 7th most of 30
7 games

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 42.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 54, missed, 38 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 41, hit, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 26, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 26, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 36, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 44, missed, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 39, hit, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 43, missed, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 40, hit, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 30, hit, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 43, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 20, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 48, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 41, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 22, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 45, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 32, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 29, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 33, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 54, missed, 39 min

Under hitMissedThe 42.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 24.3–48.3 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Under 42.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 42.5 · L20

Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Pts+Reb+Ast: 54 in 39 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 42.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 42.5

Average: 38.3; −4.2 vs line
Median: 38; −4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1674 books	—	7/14
−1601 book	+1201 book	8/14
−1352 books	−1062 books	9/14
−1075 books	−1254 books	9/14
+1001 book	−1301 book	10/14
+1255 books	−1501 book	11/14
+2454 books	—	12/14

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 42.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 42.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 42.5	Under 42.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−116	−113Best
Bovada5 min ago	−115	−115
betPARX6 min ago	−106Best	−125
BetRivers6 min ago	−107	−127
Bally Bet6 min ago	−106Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:35 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

42.5

41.5 → 42.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits