Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

CLE @ OKC · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2003 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

71%10 of 14L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 10 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 38 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 1, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 1, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 1, hit, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 5, missed, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 1, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 0, hit, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 2, missed, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 2, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 0, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 3, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 39 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 1.5 without him: 28 of 53; with him: 33 of 56 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 10 of 12; with him: 51 of 97 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 57 of 103 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jaylin Williams: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 10 of 22; with him: 51 of 87 (109 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut
Jaylin WilliamsFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Steals: 2 in 39 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Jalen Williams · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 71%; 10 of 14
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −200 the price is worse than our fair −166, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Jalen Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3153 books	—	3/14
+1523 books	−2001 book	10/14
+4753 books	—	13/14
+12002 books	—	14/14
+25001 book	—	14/14

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings11 hr ago	+149	−200Best
Bally Bet11 hr ago	+160Best	—
Bovada11 hr ago	+152	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −210 → −200 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.