Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under31.5

Under 31.5 Points, typical price −1184 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 31.5 without him: 31 of 53; with him: 32 of 56 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 31.5 without him: 9 of 12; with him: 54 of 97 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 31.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: 59 of 103 (109 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
CLE allow 61.4 points a game to guards: 8th most of 30
7 games

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 31.5 Points hit in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 42, missed, 38 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 31, hit, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 18, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 22, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 23, hit, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 35, missed, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 24, hit, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 30, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 26, hit, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 19, hit, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 32, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 15, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 35, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 32, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 17, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 34, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 26, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 21, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 26, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 43, missed, 39 min

Under hitMissedThe 31.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 16.9–36.9 points.

Splits

Under 31.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 31.5 · L20

Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Points: 43 in 39 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 31.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 31.5

Average: 28.5; −3 vs line
Median: 26; −5.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3353 books	—	5/14
−2253 books	—	8/14
−1575 books	—	8/14
−1134 books	−1183 books	9/14
−1091 book	−1171 book	10/14
+1203 books	—	10/14
+1382 books	—	10/14

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−128	−104Best
betPARX1 min ago	−113Best	−118
BetRivers2 min ago	−114	−120
Bally Bet2 min ago	−113Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

−104 → −118 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits