Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #2

Under 6.5 Assists, typical price −1525 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jalen Williams playing; Williams is out tonight. Without him: Under 6.5 in 23 of 53.

TonightTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Under 6.5 without him: 23 of 53; with him: 30 of 56 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Under 6.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 46 of 97 (109 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Under 6.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 48 of 103 (109 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
CLE allow 15.7 assists a game to guards: 14th most of 30
7 games

36%5 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Under 6.5 Assists hit in 5 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-25: 8, missed, 38 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 8, missed, 38 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 6, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 2, hit, 28 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 9, missed, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 8, missed, 39 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 12, missed, 51 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 9, missed, 38 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 12, missed, 36 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 7, missed, 31 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 9, missed, 37 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 4, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 9, missed, 43 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 4, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 3, hit, 35 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 5, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 3, hit, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 28 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 3, hit, 31 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 8, missed, 39 min

Under hitMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3–9 assists.

Splits

Under 6.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 6.5 · L20

Jalen WilliamsGOut
Ajay MitchellG
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CLE

Assists: 8 in 39 min, Nov 2 (away)

Under 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against CLE on record

L20 · Without Williams · Under 6.5

Average: 6.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 8; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 36%; 5 of 14
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9105 books	—	4/14
−3604 books	—	4/14
−1755 books	—	4/14
+1105 books	−1524 books	5/14
+1955 books	—	6/14
+3304 books	—	10/14
+5505 books	—	13/14

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
betPARX4 min ago	+110	−148Best
BetRivers5 min ago	+110	−150
FanDuel4 min ago	+116	−154
DraftKings14 min ago	+118Best	−155
Bally Bet5 min ago	+110	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

−154 → −152 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's full game log and splits