Saddiq Bey

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #41

UTAH @ NO · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under13.5

Over 13.5 Points, typical price −1032 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 13.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
UTAH allow 48.6 points a game to forwards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 13.5 without him: 33 of 44; with him: 23 of 35 (79 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 13.5 without him: 14 of 18; with him: 42 of 61 (79 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 27.4 min · 2025–26: 31.2 (72 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 13.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at POR, 2026-04-02: 15, cleared, 35 min
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 20, cleared, 29 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 32, cleared, 39 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 13, missed, 24 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 20, cleared, 22 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 14, cleared, 25 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 10, missed, 24 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 25, cleared, 26 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 18, cleared, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 13.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 7.8–27.4 points.

Splits

Over 13.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 13.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Points: 20 in 22 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 13.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 13.5

Average: 17.6; +4.1 vs line
Median: 16.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −103
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3222 books	—	9/10
−1761 book	—	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/10
−1032 books	−1252 books	7/10
+1262 books	—	6/10
+2501 book	—	5/10
+4042 books	—	4/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 13.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 13.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 13.5	Under 13.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−102Best	−130
DraftKings11 min ago	−105	−121Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:46 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

13.5

−104 → −103 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Saddiq Bey's full game log and splits