Payton PritchardDay-To-Day

Boston Celtics · G · #11

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1663 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
MIL allow 15.7 rebounds a game to guards: 16th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.6 min · 2025–26: 32.5 (86 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at HOU
Game lines
BOS −11.5 · total 223.5 (9 sportsbooks)
BOS's games this season closed at 224.5 on average (7 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Rebounds hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs PHI, 2026-04-28: 2, hit, 26 min
at PHI, 2026-04-30: 3, hit, 36 min
vs PHI, 2026-05-02: 5, missed, 39 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 4, missed, 28 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 30 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 22 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 24 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 3, hit, 35 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 7, missed, 27 min
at HOU, 2026-11-02: 3, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–6.7 rebounds.

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 7 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFDay-To-Day
Paul GeorgeF
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

Rebounds: 3 in 26 min, Apr 3 (away)

Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −166
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −137, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1852 books	+1401 book	4/10
+1253 books	−1663 books	7/10
+2402 books	—	8/10
+5082 books	—	9/10
+8502 books	—	9/10
+16802 books	—	10/10
+26001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bovada5 min ago	+125	−165Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+124	−166
DraftKings5 min ago	+128Best	−169
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−158 → −166 since first seen

Payton Pritchard's full game log and splits