Payton Pritchard

Boston Celtics · G · #11

MIL @ BOS · Live

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Assists, typical price −1403 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs PHI, 2026-04-28: 6, missed, 26 min
at PHI, 2026-04-30: 5, hit, 36 min
vs PHI, 2026-05-02: 7, missed, 39 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 28 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 30 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 22 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 6, missed, 24 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 3, hit, 35 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 27 min
at HOU, 2026-11-02: 3, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.

What's different yesterday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came with Jayson Tatum playing; Tatum is out yesterday. Without him: Under 5.5 in 39 of 67.

YesterdayTeammate out
Jayson Tatum: Out (rest)
Under 5.5 without him: 39 of 67; with him: 22 of 32 (99 games as teammates)
YesterdayDefense vs guards
MIL allow 18.0 assists a game to guards: 2nd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.6 min · 2025–26: 32.5 (86 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at HOU

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 4 of 7 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 5.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFOut
Paul GeorgeF
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

Assists: 6 in 26 min, Apr 3 (away)

Under 5.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.2; −1.3 vs line
Median: 4; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −163, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12502 books	—	1/10
−4552 books	—	4/10
−2102 books	—	6/10
−1023 books	−1402 books	7/10
+1702 books	—	9/10
+2902 books	—	10/10
+4752 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings17 hr ago	−102	−130Best
Pinnacle17 hr ago	+105Best	−140
Bally Bet17 hr ago	−108	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

4.5 → 5.5 since first seen

Payton Pritchard's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.