Payton PritchardDay-To-Day

Boston Celtics · G · #11

MIL @ BOS · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1121 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs guards
MIL allow 9.4 threes made a game to guards: 4th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 27.6 min · 2025–26: 32.5 (86 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at HOU
Game lines
BOS −11.5 · total 223.5 (10 sportsbooks)
BOS's games this season closed at 224.5 on average (7 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs PHI, 2026-04-28: 1, hit, 26 min
at PHI, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 36 min
vs PHI, 2026-05-02: 2, hit, 39 min
at DET, 2026-10-20: 2, hit, 28 min
vs NY, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 30 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-26: 7, missed, 22 min
vs BKN, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 24 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 35 min
at ORL, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 27 min
at HOU, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIL in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 7 against MIL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jayson TatumFDay-To-Day
Paul GeorgeF
Derrick WhiteG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Celtics count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIL

3-Pointers Made: 2 in 26 min, Apr 3 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against MIL on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 1; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −112 the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25001 book	—	3/10
−3601 book	—	6/10
−1181 book	−1121 book	8/10
+2201 book	—	9/10
+5001 book	—	9/10
+10001 book	—	9/10
+17001 book	—	9/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−118Best	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under No move since first seen

Payton Pritchard's full game log and splits