Oso Ighodaro

Phoenix Suns · F · #11

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under6.5

Over 6.5 Points, typical price −1283 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 6.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-10: 8, cleared, 21 min
at OKC, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 14 min
at OKC, 2026-04-19: 0, missed, 26 min
at OKC, 2026-04-22: 7, cleared, 29 min
vs OKC, 2026-04-25: 15, cleared, 39 min
vs OKC, 2026-04-27: 8, cleared, 34 min
at POR, 2026-10-21: 8, cleared, 15 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 21 min
at GS, 2026-11-02: 14, cleared, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-04: 9, cleared, 23 min

ClearedMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.2–15.6 points.

What's different today

Over 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
ORL allow 52.7 points a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
7 games
TodayRest · back-to-back
Suns played the day before (vs POR): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Mark Williams: Out (shoulder)
Over 6.5 without him: 17 of 30; with him: 23 of 60 (90 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 23.4 min · 2025–26: 22.5 (86 games)

Splits

Over 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ORL in his last 10; Over 6.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against ORL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 6.5 · L10

Devin BookerG
Jalen GreenG
Dillon BrooksF
Mark WilliamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Suns count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ORL

Points: 5 in 25 min, Mar 31 (away)

Over 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against ORL on record

L10 · Over 6.5

Average: 7.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 8; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6254 books	—	7/10
−2901 book	—	7/10
−2155 books	—	7/10
−1283 books	−1043 books	7/10
+1025 books	−1372 books	6/10
+1641 book	—	3/10
+2155 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−120Best	−106
Pinnacle3 min ago	−128	−104
FanDuel4 min ago	−130	−102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

9.5 → 6.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Rest−3%

Oso Ighodaro's full game log and splits