Matas Buzelis

Chicago Bulls · F · #14

CHI @ NY · Live

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1103 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

vs IND, 2026-04-01: 9, cleared, 29 min
at NY, 2026-04-03: 6, cleared, 23 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-10: 8, cleared, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-21: 6, cleared, 25 min
at MIL, 2026-10-23: 5, cleared, 17 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 35 min
at BOS, 2026-10-26: 1, missed, 22 min
vs NY, 2026-10-28: 5, cleared, 33 min
at BOS, 2026-10-30: 5, cleared, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-11-02: 3, missed, 23 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 2.2–8.9 rebounds.

What's different yesterday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs forwards
NY allow 18.6 rebounds a game to forwards: 16th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 29.2 (77 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at PHI
3rd straight road game
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
NY 25th, CHI 1st of 30

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Caleb WilsonF
Norman PowellG
Josh GiddeyG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Bulls count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NY

Rebounds: 5 in 33 min, Oct 28 (home)

Over 4.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against NY on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 5; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25001 book	—	9/10
−5602 books	—	9/10
−2302 books	—	8/10
−1103 books	−1222 books	8/10
+1702 books	—	4/10
+2952 books	—	2/10
+5002 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings18 hr ago	−108Best	−122
Bally Bet18 hr ago	−110	—
Pinnacle18 hr ago	−114	−114Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −118 → −110 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Matas Buzelis's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.