Matas Buzelis

Chicago Bulls · F · #14

CHI @ NY · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Assists, typical price −1722 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayGame lines
CHI +12.5 · total 232.5 (6 sportsbooks): a big spread
CHI's games this season closed at 238.2 on average (7 games)
Defense vs forwards
NY allow 10.0 assists a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 29.2 (77 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at PHI
3rd straight road game

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

vs IND, 2026-04-01: 6, cleared, 29 min
at NY, 2026-04-03: 0, missed, 23 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-10: 3, cleared, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 25 min
at MIL, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 17 min
vs WSH, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 35 min
at BOS, 2026-10-26: 2, cleared, 22 min
vs NY, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 33 min
at BOS, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 20 min
at PHI, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 23 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 assists.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Caleb WilsonF
Norman PowellG
Josh GiddeyG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bulls count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NY

Assists: 3 in 33 min, Oct 28 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 1 of 8 games against NY on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −172
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1722 books	+1112 books	7/10
+1921 book	—	4/10
+4502 books	—	1/10
+11001 book	—	1/10
+20002 books	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings1 min ago	−146Best	+111
FanDuel2 min ago	−172	+128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −166 → −172 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Matas Buzelis's full game log and splits