Matas Buzelis
CHI @ NY · Today 7:30 PM
Game log against Over 4.5
80%8 of 10L10
Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.2–8.9 rebounds.
What's different today
Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayGame lines
CHI +12.5 · total 234.5 (5 sportsbooks): a big spread
CHI's games this season closed at 238.2 on average (7 games)
Defense vs forwards
NY allow 18.6 rebounds a game to forwards: 16th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 29.2 (77 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at PHI
3rd straight road game
Splits
Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 4.5 · L10Caleb WilsonF
Norman PowellG
Josh GiddeyG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bulls count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs NY
Rebounds: 5 in 33 min, Oct 28 (home)
Over 4.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against NY on record
L10 · Over 4.5
- Average
- 5.3
- +0.8 vs line
- Median
- 5
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −117
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 61%
- estimate · fair −153
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −153, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −33354 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −5906 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −2405 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1177 books | −1145 books | 8/10 | |
| +1635 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +2906 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +4805 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| Pinnacle7 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| Bally Bet7 min ago | −117 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −117 | −114 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −117 | −115 |
| DraftKings7 min ago | −117 | −112Best |
| Bovada7 min ago | −125 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5Over: −118 → −117 since first seen