Malik Monk
SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 4.5
71%5 of 7L20 · Without Raynaud
Under 4.5 Assists hit in 5 of 7 games without Maxime Raynaud (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.
What's different today
Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick3 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Maxime Raynaud playing; Raynaud is out today. Without him: Under 4.5 in 12 of 14.
TodayTeammate out
Maxime Raynaud: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 12 of 14; with him: 40 of 55 (69 games as teammates)
TodayGame lines
SAC +17.5 · total 231.5 (7 sportsbooks): a big spread
SAC's games this season closed at 231.9 on average (8 games)
Teammate out
Keegan Murray: Out (ankle)
Under 4.5 without him: 25 of 37; with him: 16 of 20 (57 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 13.9 assists a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
8 games
Splits
Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 4.5 · L20Darius Acuff Jr.G
Zach LaVineG
Maxime RaynaudCOut
Keegan MurrayFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Kings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Assists: 6 in 13 min, Oct 27 (away)
Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 8 games against SA on record
L20 · Without Raynaud · Under 4.5
- Average
- 3.4
- −1.1 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 71%
- 5 of 7
- Price implies
- 60%
- at −152
- Books’ fair
- 57%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −143
Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −143, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Raynaud| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −20004 books | — | 1/7 | |
| −4356 books | — | 3/7 | |
| −1826 books | +1082 books | 5/7 | |
| +1127 books | −1525 books | 5/7 | |
| +2155 books | — | 5/7 | |
| +3906 books | — | 6/7 | |
| +6505 books | — | 7/7 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada11 min ago | +110 | −150Best |
| betPARX2 min ago | +112 | −152 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +112 | −152 |
| DraftKings2 min ago | +116 | −153 |
| Pinnacle2 min ago | +131 | −175 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | +112 | — |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +148Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.55.5 → 4.5 since first seen