Luka Doncic

Los Angeles Lakers · G · #77

POR @ LAL · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1203 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 4.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs CLE, 2026-03-31: 6, cleared, 34 min
at OKC, 2026-04-02: 1, missed, 26 min
vs GS, 2026-10-21: 5, cleared, 30 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 37 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-25: 8, cleared, 38 min
vs POR, 2026-10-27: 6, cleared, 37 min
at GS, 2026-10-30: 6, cleared, 37 min
vs TOR, 2026-11-01: 8, cleared, 35 min
vs MIA, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 36 min
at SAC, 2026-11-04: 6, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–8 3-pointers made.

What's different today

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
POR allow 5.7 threes made a game to guards: 29th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36 min · 2026–27: 35.6 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SAC
Game lines
LAL −2.5 · total 233.5 (8 sportsbooks)
LAL's games this season closed at 231.7 on average (9 games)

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 4.5 · L10

Austin ReavesG
Walker KesslerC
Collin SextonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Lakers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs POR

3-Pointers Made: 6 in 37 min, Oct 27 (home)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against POR on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 6; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−45002 books	—	9/10
−7702 books	—	8/10
−2802 books	—	8/10
−1203 books	−1103 books	8/10
+1572 books	—	7/10
+2882 books	—	2/10
+5162 books	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	−117Best	−113
DraftKings3 min ago	−120	−110
FanDuel2 min ago	−125	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −125 → −120 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Luka Doncic's full game log and splits