LaMelo Ball

Minnesota Timberwolves · G · #1

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −1362 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%2 of 4L20 · Without Edwards

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 2 of 4 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

vs MEM, 2026-03-21: 3, missed, 29 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-03-24: 2, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-03-26: 0, hit, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-03-28: 1, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-03-29: 1, hit, 26 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-03-31: 0, hit, 28 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-02: 1, hit, 25 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2026-04-03: 2, missed, 30 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-05: 1, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 37 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-10: 2, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-04-12: 2, missed, 29 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 17 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 31 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 28 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 29 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 20 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 2 of 4; with him: 1 of 4 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 2 of 7 (8 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Under 1.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with MIN; before that, CHA
Under 1.5 with MIN: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU in his last 20; Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 5 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
Jaden McDanielsF
Ayo DosunmuG
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs HOU

Ball didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; steals the last time Ball faced them: 1 (Feb 19)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against HOU on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Under 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 2 of 4
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −136 the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4332 books	—	0/4
+1022 books	−1361 book	2/4
+3202 books	—	3/4
+8501 book	—	4/4
+18601 book	—	4/4

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings7 hr ago	+102	−136Best
Bally Bet7 hr ago	+110Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −146 → −136 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

LaMelo Ball's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.