LaMelo Ball

Minnesota Timberwolves · G · #1

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1625 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

100%4 of 4L20 · Without Edwards

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of 4 games without Anthony Edwards (his last 20 games).

vs MEM, 2026-03-21: 3, missed, 29 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-03-24: 6, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs NY, 2026-03-26: 5, cleared, 36 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-03-28: 3, missed, 37 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-03-29: 4, cleared, 26 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-03-31: 7, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-02: 2, missed, 25 min (not counted)
vs IND, 2026-04-03: 6, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
at MIN, 2026-04-05: 3, missed, 31 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-07: 5, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-10: 5, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-04-12: 7, cleared, 29 min (not counted)
at MIA, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 28 min (not counted)
at ORL, 2026-10-23: 5, cleared, 23 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 17 min (not counted)
at CLE, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 31 min (not counted)
vs GS, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 28 min
vs LAC, 2026-10-30: 4, cleared, 29 min
at SA, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 20 min
vs MIL, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 33 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0.7–7.4 rebounds.

What's different yesterday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 4 of 4; with him: 1 of 4 (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (hip)
Over 3.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 4 of 7 (8 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (achilles)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with MIN; before that, CHA
Over 3.5 with MIN: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10

Splits

Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against HOU in his last 20; Over 3.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against HOU on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L20

Anthony EdwardsGOut
Jaden McDanielsF
Ayo DosunmuG
Terrence Shannon Jr.GOut
Donte DiVincenzoGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Timberwolves count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs HOU

Ball didn't play the Apr 10 meeting; rebounds the last time Ball faced them: 7 (Feb 19)

Over 3.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against HOU on record

L20 · Without Edwards · Over 3.5

Average: 5.5; +2 vs line
Median: 5; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 100%; 4 of 4
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −139, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Edwards

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−16003 books	—	4/4
−4193 books	—	4/4
−1625 books	+1141 book	4/4
+1235 books	−1421 book	2/4
+2022 books	—	2/4
+4103 books	—	1/4
+6302 books	—	1/4

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Pinnacle14 hr ago	−152Best	+114Best
Bally Bet14 hr ago	−162	—
betPARX14 hr ago	−162	—
BetRivers14 hr ago	−162	—
DraftKings14 hr ago	−178	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

4.5 → 3.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

LaMelo Ball's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.