Karlo Matkovic

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #17

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under6.5

Over 6.5 Points, typical price −1085 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 6.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

at DET, 2026-03-26: 8, cleared, 15 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 4, missed, 17 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 2, missed, 17 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 9 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 8 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 5, missed, 18 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 12, cleared, 28 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 18 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 25, cleared, 29 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 5, missed, 21 min

ClearedMissedThe 6.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.9–17.3 points.

What's different today

Over 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayMinutes
Last 5: 22.8 min · 2025–26: 14.7 (62 games) · up 55%
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 6.5 without him: 10 of 17; with him: 15 of 52 (69 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 38.0 points a game to forwards: 24th most of 30
9 games
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH

Splits

Over 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 6.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 6.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Matkovic didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; points the last time Matkovic faced them: 0 (Feb 6)

Over 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 6.5

Average: 7.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 6; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3753 books	—	8/10
−2401 book	—	7/10
−1554 books	—	5/10
−1085 books	−1254 books	5/10
+1284 books	—	4/10
+2355 books	—	2/10
+4104 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 6.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 6.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 6.5	Under 6.5
DraftKings8 min ago	−106Best	−120
Bally Bet8 min ago	−108	—
betPARX6 min ago	−108	−125
BetRivers7 min ago	−108	−125
FanDuel4 min ago	−112	−118Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

6.5

Over: −111 → −108 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Karlo Matkovic's full game log and splits