Karlo Matkovic
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 6.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 6.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.9–17.3 points.
What's different today
Over 6.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayMinutes
Last 5: 22.8 min · 2025–26: 14.7 (62 games) · up 55%
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 6.5 without him: 10 of 17; with him: 15 of 52 (69 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 38.0 points a game to forwards: 24th most of 30
9 games
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Splits
Over 6.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN in his last 10; Over 6.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 6.5 · L10Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIN
Matkovic didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; points the last time Matkovic faced them: 0 (Feb 6)
Over 6.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIN on record
L10 · Over 6.5
- Average
- 7.9
- +1.4 vs line
- Median
- 6
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −110
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −127
Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3753 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −2602 books | +1901 book | 7/10 | |
| −1575 books | +1251 book | 5/10 | |
| −1106 books | −1205 books | 5/10 | |
| +1285 books | −1701 book | 4/10 | |
| +1801 book | −2451 book | 2/10 | |
| +2356 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 6.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 6.5 | Under 6.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings3 min ago | −107Best | −119Best |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −109 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −109 | −122 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −110 | −124 |
| Bovada2 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:44 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
6.5Over: −111 → −110 since first seen