Joel Embiid
PHI @ DET · Today 7:00 PM
What's different today
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Over 3.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 21 of 39 (51 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
DET allow 2.4 assists a game to centers: 15th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.4 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (45 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs CHI
Game log against Over 3.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.
Splits
Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DET in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 3 of 5 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L10Tyrese MaxeyG
Jaylen BrownG
LeBron JamesF
Dominick BarlowFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DET
Embiid didn't play the Oct 25 meeting; assists the last time Embiid faced them: 6 (Feb 7, 2025)
Over 3.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against DET on record
L10 · Over 3.5
- Average
- 4.5
- +1 vs line
- Median
- 4.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −129
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −141
Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −141, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −11154 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −3155 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1296 books | −1055 books | 6/10 | |
| +1655 books | −2301 book | 5/10 | |
| +3205 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +6252 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +11602 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −118Best | −112 |
| Bovada7 min ago | −125 | −105 |
| DraftKings8 min ago | −126 | −104Best |
| Bally Bet7 min ago | −129 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −129 | −105 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −129 | −105 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5−130 → −129 since first seen