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Joel Embiid

Philadelphia 76ers · C · #21

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM
OverUnder0.5
Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −2274 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Dominick Barlow: Out (back)

    Over 0.5 without him: 8 of 12; with him: 29 of 39 (51 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs centers

    DET allow 0.9 threes made a game to centers: 9th most of 30

    7 games

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 33.4 min · 2025–26: 31.8 (45 games)

  • Rest

    1 day off since Nov 2 vs CHI

Game log against Over 0.5

40%4 of 10L10

Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

  1. at BOS, 2026-05-02: 1, cleared, 39 min
  2. at NY, 2026-05-04: 0, missed, 25 min
  3. vs NY, 2026-05-08: 0, missed, 35 min
  4. vs NY, 2026-05-10: 2, cleared, 28 min
  5. at NY, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 33 min
  6. vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 34 min
  7. vs MIL, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 36 min
  8. at IND, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 39 min
  9. vs NY, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 33 min
  10. vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 25 min
ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 5 of 5 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

  • Tyrese MaxeyG

  • Jaylen BrownG

  • LeBron JamesF

  • Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Embiid didn't play the Oct 25 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Embiid faced them: 1 (Feb 7, 2025)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average
0.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
0
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
69%
at −227
Books’ fair
65%
margin removed
Our chance
62%
estimate · fair −162

Research, not a pick. At −225 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −162, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2274 books+1633 books4/10
+1954 books—2/10
+6801 book—0/10
+17001 book—0/10
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 0.5Under 0.5
Bally Bet3 min ago−225Best—
betPARX3 min ago−225Best+163
BetRivers3 min ago−230+163
FanDuel3 min ago−240+174Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:03 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −240 → −227 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%
Joel Embiid's full game log and splits