Jaylen Brown
PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM
What's different tonight
Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightDefense vs guards
DET allow 11.4 rebounds a game to guards: 29th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Over 5.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: no games (7 games as teammates)
New team
7 games with PHI; before that, BOS
Over 5.5 with PHI: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 36 min · 2025–26: 34.5 (78 games)
Game log against Over 5.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 5.5 Rebounds cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2–10.2 rebounds.
Splits
Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 5.5 · L10Tyrese MaxeyG
Joel EmbiidC
LeBron JamesF
Dominick BarlowFOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DET
Rebounds: 4 in 40 min, Oct 25 (home)
Over 5.5 hit in 8 of 10 games against DET on record
L10 · Over 5.5
- Average
- 6.3
- +0.8 vs line
- Median
- 6.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 62%
- at −162
- Books’ fair
- 58%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −134
Research, not a pick. At −153 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −28642 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −7155 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −3052 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1626 books | +1214 books | 5/10 | |
| +1142 books | −1502 books | 5/10 | |
| +1886 books | −2751 book | 5/10 | |
| +3171 book | — | 3/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings7 min ago | −153Best | — |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −154 | +116 |
| Bovada1 min ago | −160 | +120 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −165 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −165 | +123Best |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −167 | +123Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
5.5Over −118 → −162 since first seen