Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks · F · #1

WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under9.5

Under 9.5 Rebounds, typical price −1506 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 9.5 Rebounds hit in 8 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

vs NY, 2026-04-25: 3, hit, 35 min
at NY, 2026-04-28: 10, missed, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 8, hit, 32 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 14, missed, 28 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 7, hit, 29 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 9, hit, 38 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 9, hit, 36 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 9, hit, 36 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 8, hit, 34 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 7, hit, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.2–13.5 rebounds.

What's different today

Under 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 9.5 without him: 6 of 12; with him: 15 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 21.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 4th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH
Johnson has missed the last 2 games

Splits

Under 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 9.5 hit in 4 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 9.5 · L10

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Johnson didn't play the Nov 4 meeting; rebounds the last time Johnson faced them: 3 (Feb 24)

Under 9.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 9.5

Average: 8.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 8.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −139 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2305 books	—	3/10
−1414 books	pick'em only	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1106 books	−1505 books	8/10
+1704 books	—	9/10
+2505 books	—	9/10
+3604 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+106	−139Best
betPARX5 min ago	+110	−150
BetRivers5 min ago	+110	−150
FanDuel5 min ago	+116Best	−154
Pinnacle5 min ago	+116Best	−154
Bally Bet5 min ago	+110	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

7.5 → 9.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Jalen Johnson's full game log and splits