Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Under 37.5
80%8 of 10L10
Under 37.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 18.4–49.2 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Under 37.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 37.5 without him: 10 of 12; with him: 10 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 74.6 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 8th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH
Johnson has missed the last 2 games
Splits
Under 37.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against WSH in his last 10; Under 37.5 hit in 4 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 37.5 · L10Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs WSH
Johnson didn't play the Nov 4 meeting; pts+reb+ast the last time Johnson faced them: 8 (Feb 24)
Under 37.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against WSH on record
L10 · Under 37.5
- Average
- 33.8
- −3.7 vs line
- Median
- 34
- −3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −147
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1955 books | +1351 book | 7/10 | |
| −1501 book | +1151 book | 8/10 | |
| −1302 books | −1142 books | 8/10 | |
| −1186 books | −1205 books | 8/10 | |
| +1051 book | −1351 book | 8/10 | |
| +1175 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +2455 books | — | 9/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 37.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 37.5 | Under 37.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX4 min ago | −118 | −115Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −118 | −115Best |
| Bovada4 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| DraftKings4 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | −106Best | −125 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −118 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:46 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
37.5Under: −114 → −120 since first seen