Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks · F · #1

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under28.5

Under 28.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1061 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 28.5 without him: 10 of 12; with him: 13 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game · Johnson sat the last game (Nov 2)
Game lines
ATL −1.5 · total 233.5 (7 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 232.9 on average (8 games)

90%9 of 10L10

Under 28.5 Pts+Ast hit in 9 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs NY, 2026-04-25: 19, hit, 35 min
at NY, 2026-04-28: 24, hit, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 27, hit, 32 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 26, hit, 28 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 27, hit, 29 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 42, missed, 38 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 25, hit, 36 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 23, hit, 36 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 24, hit, 34 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 17, hit, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 28.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 11.7–36.8 pts+ast.

Splits

Under 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 28.5 hit in 7 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 28.5 · L10

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Johnson didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; pts+ast the last time Johnson faced them: 5 (Feb 24)

Under 28.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 28.5

Average: 25.4; −3.1 vs line
Median: 24.5; −4 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −106 the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	pick'em only	pick'em only	9/10
	−1251 book	−1061 book	9/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 28.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 28.5	Under 28.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−125Best	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

−104 → −106 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Jalen Johnson's full game log and splits