Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks · F · #1

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Assists, typical price −1032 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 7.5 without him: 11 of 12; with him: 9 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 6.6 assists a game to forwards: 25th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game · Johnson sat the last game (Nov 2)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs NY, 2026-04-25: 5, hit, 35 min
at NY, 2026-04-28: 6, hit, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 6, hit, 32 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 6, hit, 28 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 29 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 16, missed, 38 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 36 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 11, missed, 36 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 7, hit, 34 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 4, hit, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3–10 assists.

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 8 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 7.5 · L10

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Johnson didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; assists the last time Johnson faced them: 0 (Feb 24)

Under 7.5 hit in 8 of 9 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 7.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 6; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −103
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −103 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−31562 books	—	0/10
−9201 book	—	2/10
−4442 books	—	3/10
−1282 books	−1032 books	7/10
+1341 book	—	8/10
+2042 books	—	8/10
+3771 book	—	8/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−128Best	−103Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−128Best	−104
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

+100 → −103 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Jalen Johnson's full game log and splits