Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks · F · #1

WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under20.5

Under 20.5 Points, typical price −1207 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs NY, 2026-04-25: 14, hit, 35 min
at NY, 2026-04-28: 18, hit, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 21, missed, 32 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 20, hit, 28 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 19, hit, 29 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 26, missed, 38 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 21, missed, 36 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 12, hit, 36 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 17, hit, 34 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 13, hit, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.1–28.3 points.

What's different today

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 20.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 13 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 46.3 points a game to forwards: 8th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH
Johnson has missed the last 2 games

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 20.5 hit in 5 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 20.5 · L10

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Johnson didn't play the Nov 4 meeting; points the last time Johnson faced them: 5 (Feb 24)

Under 20.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 20.5

Average: 18.1; −2.4 vs line
Median: 18.5; −2 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2355 books	+1651 book	4/10
−1701 book	+1301 book	5/10
−1486 books	+1051 book	6/10
−1107 books	−1206 books	7/10
+1024 books	−1501 book	9/10
+1401 book	−1851 book	9/10
+1554 books	−2301 book	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 20.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 20.5	Under 20.5
betPARX3 min ago	−120	−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−120	−113Best
Bovada6 min ago	−110	−120
DraftKings6 min ago	−107	−120
Pinnacle6 min ago	−108	−122
FanDuel2 min ago	−104Best	−128
Bally Bet6 min ago	−120	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:48 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

19.5 → 20.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Jalen Johnson's full game log and splits