Jalen JohnsonDay-To-Day
WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Under 7.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 7.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3–10 assists.
What's different today
Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 7.5 without him: 11 of 12; with him: 9 of 26 (38 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
WSH allow 7.0 assists a game to forwards: 22nd most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.4 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH
Johnson has missed the last 2 games
Splits
Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against WSH in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 8 of 9 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 7.5 · L10Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs WSH
Johnson didn't play the Nov 4 meeting; assists the last time Johnson faced them: 0 (Feb 24)
Under 7.5 hit in 8 of 9 games against WSH on record
L10 · Under 7.5
- Average
- 7.3
- −0.2 vs line
- Median
- 6
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −131
- Books’ fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 61%
- estimate · fair −155
Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7705 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −3455 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1865 books | +1501 book | 6/10 | |
| −1057 books | −1316 books | 7/10 | |
| +1655 books | −2101 book | 8/10 | |
| +2656 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +4404 books | — | 8/10 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada5 min ago | −110 | −120Best |
| betPARX1 min ago | −105 | −129 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −105 | −129 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −101 | −131 |
| DraftKings5 min ago | +102Best | −134 |
| FanDueljust now | +102Best | −136 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −106 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 1:48 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
7.59.5 → 7.5 since first seen