Jalen Green
ORL @ PHX · LiveGame log against Over 3.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0.8–7.4 rebounds.
What's different yesterday
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickYesterdayRest · back-to-back
Suns played the day before (vs POR): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Mark Williams: Out (shoulder)
Over 3.5 without him: 15 of 26; with him: 6 of 16 (42 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jordan Goodwin: Out (calf)
Over 3.5 without him: 7 of 11; with him: 14 of 31 (42 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
ORL allow 16.7 rebounds a game to guards: 8th most of 30
7 games
Splits
Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ORL in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against ORL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L10Devin BookerG
Dillon BrooksF
Miles BridgesF
Mark WilliamsCOut
Jordan GoodwinGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Suns count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs ORL
Rebounds: 1 in 20 min, Mar 31 (away)
Over 3.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against ORL on record
L10 · Over 3.5
- Average
- 4.1
- +0.6 vs line
- Median
- 4.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 59%
- at −142
- Books’ fair
- 54%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −135
Research, not a pick. At −129 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −11153 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −3353 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1423 books | −1022 books | 6/10 | |
| +1483 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +2652 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +5803 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +7502 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings7 hr ago | −129Best | −102 |
| Pinnacle7 hr ago | −142 | +107Best |
| Bally Bet7 hr ago | −143 | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Over: −110 → −142 since first seen
What moved our number
This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.


