Jalen Green
ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM
Game log against Under 3.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 3.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.
What's different today
Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayRest · back-to-back
Suns played the day before (vs POR): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Mark Williams: Out (shoulder)
Under 3.5 without him: 15 of 26; with him: 12 of 16 (42 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jordan Goodwin: Out (calf)
Under 3.5 without him: 9 of 11; with him: 18 of 31 (42 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
ORL allow 15.7 assists a game to guards: 16th most of 30
7 games
Splits
Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ORL in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 2 of 5 against ORL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 3.5 · L10Devin BookerG
Dillon BrooksF
Miles BridgesF
Mark WilliamsCOut
Jordan GoodwinGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Suns count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs ORL
Assists: 2 in 20 min, Mar 31 (away)
Under 3.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against ORL on record
L10 · Under 3.5
- Average
- 3.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 63%
- at −170
- Books’ fair
- 59%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −145
Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −145, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5904 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −1956 books | +1262 books | 4/10 | |
| +1206 books | −1704 books | 6/10 | |
| +2506 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +4805 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +10002 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +22001 book | — | 9/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX7 min ago | +120 | −165Best |
| BetRivers7 min ago | +120 | −165Best |
| Bovada7 min ago | +130 | −170 |
| DraftKings8 min ago | +130 | −172 |
| Bally Bet7 min ago | +120 | — |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +162Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.52.5 → 3.5 since first seen