Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Milwaukee Bucks · F · #24

TOR @ MIL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Points, typical price −1206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at WSH, 2026-04-10: 23, cleared, 36 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 26, cleared, 26 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 22, cleared, 31 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 19, cleared, 35 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 21, cleared, 27 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 19, cleared, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 8, missed, 23 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 19, cleared, 28 min
at BOS, 2026-11-04: 18, cleared, 31 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.9–25.5 points.

What's different today

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Over 14.5 with MIL: 6 of 8; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 41.5 points a game to forwards: 19th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.8 min · 2026–27: 28.4 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at BOS

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 14.5 cleared in 5 of 9 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Jr. didn't play the Feb 22 meeting; points the last time Jr. faced them: 15 (Apr 9)

Over 14.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 18.3; +3.8 vs line
Median: 19; +4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −102 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5442 books	—	8/10
−2654 books	—	8/10
−1553 books	—	8/10
−1206 books	−1254 books	8/10
+1064 books	−1271 book	8/10
+1704 books	—	8/10
+2555 books	—	4/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
Pinnacle7 min ago	−102Best	−130
FanDuel2 min ago	−106	−125
Bally Bet7 min ago	−120	—
betPARX2 min ago	−120	−113Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−120	−113Best
DraftKings7 min ago	−128	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

19.5 → 14.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s full game log and splits