Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Milwaukee Bucks · F · #24

TOR @ MIL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under18.5

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1074 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 18.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at WSH, 2026-04-10: 31, cleared, 36 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 31, cleared, 26 min
at WSH, 2026-10-21: 24, cleared, 31 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-23: 24, cleared, 35 min
at PHI, 2026-10-24: 25, cleared, 27 min
vs IND, 2026-10-26: 8, missed, 25 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-28: 21, cleared, 27 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-31: 13, missed, 23 min
at MIN, 2026-11-02: 21, cleared, 28 min
at BOS, 2026-11-04: 20, cleared, 31 min

ClearedMissedThe 18.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12.5–29.1 pts+ast.

What's different today

Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with MIL; before that, MIA
Over 18.5 with MIL: 6 of 8; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Minutes
Last 5: 26.8 min · 2026–27: 28.4 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at BOS
Game lines
MIL +7.5 · total 231.5 (6 sportsbooks)
MIL's games this season closed at 234 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 18.5 cleared in 4 of 9 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 18.5 · L10

Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G
Ryan RollinsG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Bucks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Jr. didn't play the Feb 22 meeting; pts+ast the last time Jr. faced them: 19 (Apr 9)

Over 18.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 18.5

Average: 21.8; +3.3 vs line
Median: 22.5; +4 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−15801 book	—	9/10
−2784 books	—	8/10
−1201 book	−1101 book	8/10
−1074 books	−1272 books	8/10
+1174 books	—	8/10
+3651 book	—	3/10
+9801 book	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
Bally Bet15 min ago	−104Best	—
DraftKings16 min ago	−105	−125Best
betPARX1 min ago	−107	−127
BetRiversjust now	−107	—

Prices as of 6:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

17.5 → 18.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s full game log and splits