Isaiah Hartenstein

Oklahoma City Thunder · C · #55

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

64%9 of 14L20 · Without Williams

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 9 of 14 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

at PHX, 2026-04-27: 1, cleared, 29 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 1, cleared, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 2, cleared, 27 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 1, cleared, 31 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 3, cleared, 28 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 1, cleared, 12 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 0, missed, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 0, missed, 21 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, missed, 18 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 0, missed, 31 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 0, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 1, cleared, 21 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 17 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 23 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 26 min
at HOU, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 25 min
at CLE, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 28 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 2, cleared, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 0.5 without him: 31 of 48; with him: 26 of 40 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 8 of 10; with him: 49 of 78 (88 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 54 of 82 (88 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
MEM allow 0.6 steals a game to centers: 17th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 5 of 10 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Hartenstein didn't play the Jan 9 meeting; steals the last time Hartenstein faced them: 0 (Nov 9, 2025)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 10 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 64%; 9 of 14
Price implies: 69%; at −225
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −171

Research, not a pick. At −188 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −171, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2256 books	+1601 book	9/14
+1956 books	—	5/14
+8803 books	—	2/14
+18601 book	—	0/14

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bovada1 min ago	−188Best	—
FanDuel1 min ago	−188Best	—
DraftKings2 min ago	−204	—
Bally Bet2 min ago	−225	—
betPARXjust now	−225	+160Best
BetRiversjust now	−225	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −188 → −225 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+2%

Isaiah Hartenstein's full game log and splits