Herbert Jones

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #2

UTAH @ NO · Live

Over Under1.5

—1 pick'em app, no priceUpdated

75%3 of 4L20 · Without Murphy

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 3 of 4 games without Trey Murphy III (his last 20 games).

vs TOR, 2026-03-11: 1, hit, 36 min (not counted)
at HOU, 2026-03-13: 3, missed, 35 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-03-16: 0, hit, 29 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-18: 5, missed, 26 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-03-19: 2, missed, 30 min (not counted)
vs CLE, 2026-03-21: 1, hit, 31 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-03-24: 0, hit, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-03-26: 0, hit, 27 min
at TOR, 2026-03-27: 3, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 0, hit, 30 min
at POR, 2026-04-02: 0, hit, 26 min (not counted)
at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, hit, 13 min (not counted)
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 0, hit, 9 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 18 min (not counted)
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 16 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 19 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 25 min (not counted)
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 28 min (not counted)

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

7 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Trey Murphy III playing; Murphy is out today. Without him: Under 1.5 in 6 of 9.

TodayTeammate out
Trey Murphy III: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 31 of 54 (63 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: 28 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
UTAH allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 14th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 24 min · 2025–26: 28.4 (56 games)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L20

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Steals: 0 in 18 min, Oct 23 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 6 of 7 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Murphy · Under 1.5

Average: 0.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 0; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 75%; 3 of 4
Price implies: —; 1 pick'em app, no price
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −203

Research, not a pick. No sportsbook prices the Under 1.5 right now; it's posted on 1 pick'em app. Our fair price is −203.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Murphy

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2652 books	—	3/4
+1632 books	pick'em only	3/4
+4751 book	—	3/4

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet2 hr ago	+163Best	—
betPARX2 hr ago	+163Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Herbert Jones's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.