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Herbert Jones

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #2

NO @ MEM · Mon, Nov 2 8:00 PM
OverUnder1.5
Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2311 sportsbook · consensus line

Game log against Under 1.5

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs HOU, 2026-03-29: 0, hit
  2. at POR, 2026-04-02: 0, hit
  3. at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, hit
  4. vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 0, hit
  5. vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, hit
  6. at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 0, hit
  7. at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, hit
  8. vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed
  9. vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 2, missed
  10. vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit
Under hitMissedThe 1.5 line

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 steals.

No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.

L10 · Under 1.5

Average
0.8
−0.7 vs line
Median
1
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10
Price implies
70%
at −231
Books’ fair
65%
margin removed
Our chance
67%
estimate · fair −203

Research, not a pick. At −231 the price is worse than our fair −203, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2601 book—4/10
+1711 book−2311 book8/10
+5241 book—10/10
+13401 book—10/10
+26001 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
DraftKings21 hr ago+171Best−231Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 8:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

No opening line kept for this market yet.

No line history recorded for this market yet.

What moved our number

Pace+4%
Herbert Jones's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:12 PM ET.