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Georges Niang

Golden State Warriors · F · #32

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
OverUnder0.5
Under 0.5 Steals, typical price −1863 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 0.5

63%5 of 8L20 · Without Butler

Under 0.5 Steals hit in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

  1. vs GS, 2025-03-22: 0, hit, 22 min (not counted)
  2. vs PHI, 2025-03-23: 1, missed, 24 min (not counted)
  3. at HOU, 2025-03-25: 1, missed, 22 min (not counted)
  4. at MIA, 2025-03-27: 1, missed, 14 min (not counted)
  5. at MIL, 2025-03-30: 0, hit, 15 min (not counted)
  6. vs POR, 2025-04-01: 0, hit, 17 min (not counted)
  7. at DAL, 2025-04-02: 1, missed, 20 min (not counted)
  8. vs NY, 2025-04-05: 0, hit, 25 min (not counted)
  9. vs UTAH, 2025-04-06: 0, hit, 19 min (not counted)
  10. at ORL, 2025-04-08: 0, hit, 20 min (not counted)
  11. at BKN, 2025-04-10: 0, hit, 19 min (not counted)
  12. at PHI, 2025-04-11: 0, hit, 17 min (not counted)
  13. at LAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 20 min
  14. vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 13 min
  15. at PHX, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 23 min
  16. at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 18 min
  17. at MIN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 23 min
  18. vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 19 min
  19. vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 21 min
  20. vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 22 min
Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayTeammate out

    Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)

    Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)

  • TodayDefense vs forwards

    MIA allow 4.6 steals a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30

    8 games

  • Teammate out

    Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)

    Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Moses Moody: Out (knee)

    Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

  • Stephen CurryG

  • Yaxel LendeborgF

  • Jimmy Butler IIIFOut

  • Kristaps PorzingisCOut

  • Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Niang didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; steals the last time Niang faced them: 1 (Mar 27, 2025)

Under 0.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Under 0.5

Average
0.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
0
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
63%
5 of 8
Price implies
65%
at −186
Books’ fair
60%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −144

Research, not a pick. At −186 the price is worse than our fair −144, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Butler
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL20
+1353 books−1861 book5/8
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 0.5Under 0.5
betPARX2 min ago+135Best−186Best
Bally Bet4 min ago+135Best—
BetRivers3 min ago+135Best—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 4:16 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Georges Niang's full game log and splits