Georges Niang
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 7.5
38%3 of 8L20 · Without Butler
Over 7.5 Points cleared in 3 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.2–16.6 points.
What's different today
Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with GS; before that, UTAH
Over 7.5 with GS: 3 of 8; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Splits
Over 7.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 7.5 · L20Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Niang didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; points the last time Niang faced them: 5 (Mar 27, 2025)
Over 7.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIA on record
L20 · Without Butler · Over 7.5
- Average
- 7.3
- −0.2 vs line
- Median
- 7
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 38%
- 3 of 8
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −104
Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4752 books | — | 5/8 | |
| −2256 books | +1901 book | 5/8 | |
| −1702 books | +1301 book | 5/8 | |
| −1187 books | −1146 books | 3/8 | |
| +1152 books | −1501 book | 3/8 | |
| +1506 books | −2151 book | 2/8 | |
| +2351 book | — | 2/8 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel1 min ago | −104Best | −122 |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | −108 | −122 |
| DraftKings4 min ago | −116 | −109Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −118 | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | −118 | −114 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −118 | −114 |
| Bovada4 min ago | −120 | −110 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
7.5−112 → −118 since first seen