Georges Niang
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 3.5
63%5 of 8L20 · Without Butler
Under 3.5 Rebounds hit in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.2–6.9 rebounds.
What's different today
Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick2 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jimmy Butler III playing; Butler is out today. Without him: Under 3.5 in 5 of 8.
TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
New team
8 games with GS; before that, UTAH
Under 3.5 with GS: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 9 of 10
Splits
Under 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 3.5 · L20Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Niang didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; rebounds the last time Niang faced them: 3 (Mar 27, 2025)
Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against MIA on record
L20 · Without Butler · Under 3.5
- Average
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 62%
- at −165
- Books’ fair
- 58%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −125
Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −125, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5004 books | — | 1/8 | |
| −1906 books | +1401 book | 3/8 | |
| +1237 books | −1656 books | 5/8 | |
| +2156 books | — | 7/8 | |
| +3805 books | — | 8/8 | |
| +6506 books | — | 8/8 | |
| +15002 books | — | 8/8 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX2 min ago | +112 | −155Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +112 | −155Best |
| DraftKings4 min ago | +123 | −162 |
| Bovada4 min ago | +125 | −165 |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | +125 | −167 |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +132Best | −170 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | +112 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:42 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5−138 → −165 since first seen