Evan Mobley
CLE @ OKC · Tomorrow 8:00 PM
What's different tonight
Under 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick2 of his last 3 came with Peyton Watson playing; Watson is out tonight. Without him: Under 8.5 in 1 of 1.
TonightTeammate out
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Under 8.5 without him: 1 of 1; with him: 3 of 6 (7 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs centers
OKC allow 6.6 rebounds a game to centers: 26th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 32.2 min · 2025–26: 32.7 (83 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs OKC
Game log against Under 8.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 8.5 Rebounds hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.7–12.2 rebounds.
Splits
Under 8.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 8.5 · L10Donovan MitchellG
James HardenG
Peyton WatsonGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Cavaliers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs OKC
Rebounds: 7 in 33 min, Nov 2 (home)
Under 8.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against OKC on record
L10 · Under 8.5
- Average
- 7.5
- −1 vs line
- Median
- 7
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5905 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −3081 book | — | 4/10 | |
| −1905 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1175 books | −1144 books | 7/10 | |
| +1325 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +2161 book | — | 9/10 | |
| +2955 books | — | 9/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 8.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 8.5 | Under 8.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −125 | −106Best |
| betPARX1 min ago | −117 | −114 |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −118 | −115 |
| DraftKings5 min ago | −112Best | −117 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −117 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
8.5Under −112 → −114 since first seen