Dyson Daniels
WSH @ ATL · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Under 19.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 19.5 Pts+Reb hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.3–26.4 pts+reb.
What's different today
Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 19.5 without him: 9 of 14; with him: 14 of 27 (41 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 29.7 (9 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at WSH
Game lines
ATL −7.5 · total 228.5 (9 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 232.5 on average (9 games)
Splits
Under 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 19.5 · L10Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG
CJ McCollumG
Jock LandaleCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs WSH
Pts+Reb: 25 in 34 min, Nov 4 (away)
Under 19.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against WSH on record
L10 · Under 19.5
- Average
- 15
- −4.5 vs line
- Median
- 13.5
- −6 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −125
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −134
Research, not a pick. At −123 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3755 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1701 book | +1301 book | 6/10 | |
| −1302 books | −1022 books | 6/10 | |
| −1035 books | −1253 books | 6/10 | |
| +2855 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +8402 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +20002 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 19.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 19.5 | Under 19.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings3 min ago | −107 | −123Best |
| Bovada3 min ago | −105 | −125 |
| betPARX1 min ago | −103Best | −134 |
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −103Best | — |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −103Best | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
19.5Under: −130 → −125 since first seen