Dillon Brooks
POR @ PHX · LiveGame log against Over 21.5
80%8 of 10L10
Over 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 13.5–37.6 pts+reb+ast.
What's different yesterday
Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Mark Williams: Out (shoulder)
Over 21.5 without him: 13 of 16; with him: 31 of 49 (65 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jordan Goodwin: Out (calf)
Over 21.5 without him: 4 of 5; with him: 40 of 60 (65 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
POR allow 68.8 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 16th most of 30
6 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.8 min · 2025–26: 30.9 (60 games)
Splits
Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 21.5 · L10Devin BookerG
Jalen GreenG
Miles BridgesF
Mark WilliamsCOut
Jordan GoodwinGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Suns count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs POR
Pts+Reb+Ast: 14 in 27 min, Oct 21 (away)
Over 21.5 hit in 3 of 10 games against POR on record
L10 · Over 21.5
- Average
- 27
- +5.5 vs line
- Median
- 28
- +6.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −120
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −144
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6603 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1853 books | +1401 book | 8/10 | |
| −1501 book | +1151 book | 8/10 | |
| −1203 books | −1102 books | 8/10 | |
| +1051 book | −1351 book | 7/10 | |
| +1251 book | −1651 book | 7/10 | |
| +1543 books | — | 7/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet8 hr ago | −113Best | — |
| Bovada8 hr ago | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings8 hr ago | −122 | −108Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.522.5 → 21.5 since first seen
What moved our number
This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.


