DeMar DeRozan

Denver Nuggets · G · #10

TOR @ DEN · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Points, typical price +1021 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightMinutes
Last 5: 24.6 min · 2025–26: 31.3 (77 games) · down 21%
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 11.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
New team
6 games with DEN; before that, SAC
Over 11.5 with DEN: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 60.7 points a game to guards: 9th most of 30
7 games

60%6 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at ATL, 2026-03-28: 22, cleared, 30 min
at TOR, 2026-04-01: 28, cleared, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-04-03: 14, cleared, 23 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-05: 9, missed, 10 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 13, cleared, 28 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 12, cleared, 24 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 21, cleared, 29 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 26 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 9, missed, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

DeRozan didn't play the Mar 20 meeting; points the last time DeRozan faced them: 28 (Apr 1)

Over 11.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 13.7; +2.2 vs line
Median: 12.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +102
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Minutes: 24.9; 10 games · 31.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 11.5 46%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14001 book	—	9/10
−1781 book	—	6/10
+1021 book	−1361 book	6/10
+2401 book	—	3/10
+8001 book	—	3/10
+20001 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+102Best	−136Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:38 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

+100 → +102 since first seen

DeMar DeRozan's full game log and splits