De'Aaron Fox

San Antonio Spurs · G · #4

SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 on the road).

at NY, 2026-06-10: 2, missed, 37 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 2, missed, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 32 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 34 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 26 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 39 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 35 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 22 min
vs DAL, 2026-11-04: 1, hit, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayGame lines
SA −16.5 · total 229.5 (9 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Defense vs guards
SAC allow 4.0 steals a game to guards: 18th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2026–27: 31.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SAC

Steals: 0 in 26 min, Oct 27 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against SAC on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −225
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −179

Research, not a pick. At −215 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −179, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2866 books	—	2/10
+1556 books	−2253 books	5/10
+4506 books	—	8/10
+12803 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
betPARX2 min ago	+155	−215Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+164	−225
DraftKings8 min ago	+167	−226
Bally Bet7 min ago	+155	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+155	—
Bovada7 min ago	+168Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+2%

De'Aaron Fox's full game log and splits