De'Aaron Fox
SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 21.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 21.5 Pts+Ast hit in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11.6–27.2 pts+ast.
What's different today
Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayGame lines
SA −16.5 · total 230.5 (9 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2026–27: 31.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
SAC 5th, SA 11th of 30
Splits
Under 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 21.5 · L10Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SAC
Pts+Ast: 17 in 26 min, Oct 27 (home)
Under 21.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against SAC on record
L10 · Under 21.5
- Average
- 20.7
- −0.8 vs line
- Median
- 19.5
- −2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −128
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −138
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −9002 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −1825 books | +1201 book | 5/10 | |
| −1251 book | −1051 book | 5/10 | |
| −1186 books | −1284 books | 6/10 | |
| +1555 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +3905 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +12802 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX6 min ago | −118 | −114Best |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| DraftKings6 min ago | −103 | −128 |
| Bovada6 min ago | +100Best | −130 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −118 | — |
| BetRivers7 min ago | −118 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 1:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.5−112 → −128 since first seen