De'Aaron Fox
DAL @ SA · Today 9:30 PMWhat's different today
Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pickMinutes
Last 5: 30 min · 2025–26: 31.6 (94 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 227.5 (8 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
DAL 20th, SA 9th of 30
Game log against Over 9.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 9.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.1–14.1 reb+ast.
Splits
Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 9.5 · L10Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DAL
Reb+Ast: 12 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)
Over 9.5 hit in 7 of 10 games against DAL on record
L10 · Over 9.5
- Average
- 10.4
- +0.9 vs line
- Median
- 11.5
- +2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 59%
- at −144
- Books’ fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −131
Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −40001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −4251 book | — | 7/10 | |
| −2401 book | +1751 book | 7/10 | |
| −1446 books | +1083 books | 7/10 | |
| +1052 books | −1392 books | 6/10 | |
| +1601 book | — | 5/10 | |
| +5501 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 9.5 | Under 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet14 min ago | −136Best | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −136Best | +102 |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −136Best | — |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −144 | +108 |
| Bovada14 min ago | −150 | +115Best |
| DraftKings14 min ago | −150 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
9.5−152 → −144 since first seen


