De'Aaron Fox
SA @ SAC · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 15.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 15.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.1–21.4 points.
What's different today
Under 15.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayGame lines
SA −17.5 · total 230.5 (6 sportsbooks): a big spread
SA's games this season closed at 229 on average (8 games)
Defense vs guards
SAC allow 49.4 points a game to guards: 27th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31 min · 2026–27: 31.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs DAL
Splits
Under 15.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 15.5 · L10Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
Dylan HarperG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SAC
Points: 11 in 26 min, Oct 27 (home)
Under 15.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against SAC on record
L10 · Under 15.5
- Average
- 14.6
- −0.9 vs line
- Median
- 14
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −131
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2301 book | +1701 book | 4/10 | |
| −1954 books | +1301 book | 4/10 | |
| −1303 books | +1002 books | 6/10 | |
| −1186 books | −1145 books | 6/10 | |
| +1251 book | −1651 book | 6/10 | |
| +1355 books | −2151 book | 6/10 | |
| +2001 book | −2751 book | 7/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 15.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 15.5 | Under 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX3 min ago | −118 | −114Best |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −118 | −114Best |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| Pinnacle6 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| Bovada5 min ago | +100Best | −130 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −121 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
15.514.5 → 15.5 since first seen