Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1282 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 28.6 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Game lines
MIA −4.5 · total 233.5 (6 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 237.4 on average (7 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
LAC 12th, MIA 3rd of 30

60%6 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 10, missed, 23 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 18, cleared, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 14, missed, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 11, missed, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 20, cleared, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 23, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 21, cleared, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 11, missed, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 21, cleared, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 15, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.5–24.9 pts+reb.

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 14.5 cleared in 2 of 6 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoFDay-To-Day
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Pts+Reb: 19 in 31 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 14.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 16.4; +1.9 vs line
Median: 16.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4471 book	—	10/10
−1282 books	−1202 books	6/10
+2991 book	—	4/10
+8501 book	—	0/10
+20001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−109Best	−120
FanDuel2 min ago	−128	−104Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

Over −130 → −128 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits