Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1302 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
LAC allow 102.9 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 28.6 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Game lines
MIA −4.5 · total 234.5 (5 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 237.4 on average (7 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 16, missed, 23 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 29, cleared, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 15, missed, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 22, cleared, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 25, cleared, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 33, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 23, cleared, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 21, missed, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 32, cleared, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 22, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 14–32.7 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 21.5 cleared in 2 of 6 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 21.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoFDay-To-Day
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Pts+Reb+Ast: 31 in 31 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 21.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 23.8; +2.3 vs line
Median: 22.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7001 book	—	10/10
−1871 book	—	8/10
−1302 books	−1092 books	7/10
+1571 book	—	4/10
+4331 book	—	2/10
+11001 book	—	0/10
+23001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−120Best	−109
FanDuel5 min ago	−130	−102Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

22.5 → 21.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits