Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ LAC · Tomorrow 10:30 PM

Over Under19.5

Over 19.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1181 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Minutes
Last 5: 33.6 min · 2025–26: 28.6 (70 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at LAL
Game lines
MIA −4.5 · total 233.5 (5 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 237.4 on average (7 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
LAC 12th, MIA 3rd of 30

80%8 of 10L10

Over 19.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-07: 15, missed, 23 min
at TOR, 2026-04-09: 26, cleared, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 13, missed, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 22, cleared, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 23, cleared, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 32, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 23, cleared, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 20, cleared, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 26, cleared, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 22, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 19.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 12.1–29.9 pts+ast.

Splits

Over 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 19.5 cleared in 1 of 6 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 19.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoFDay-To-Day
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LAC

Pts+Ast: 28 in 31 min, Dec 1, 2025 (home)

Over 19.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 19.5

Average: 22.2; +2.7 vs line
Median: 22.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −118 the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1181 book	−1121 book	8/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−118Best	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:57 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

Over −114 → −118 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits