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Darius Garland

LA Clippers · G · #10

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM
OverUnder28.5
Under 28.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)

    Under 28.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 13 of 18 (26 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Bradley Beal: Out (knee)

    Under 28.5 without him: 17 of 26; with him: no games (26 games as teammates)

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 32.4 min · 2025–26: 29.8 (45 games)

  • Rest

    1 day off since Nov 2 vs TOR

Game log against Under 28.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 28.5 Pts+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

  1. vs DAL, 2026-04-07: 26, hit, 28 min
  2. at POR, 2026-04-10: 23, hit, 41 min
  3. vs GS, 2026-04-12: 21, hit, 27 min
  4. vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 34, missed, 32 min
  5. at LAL, 2026-10-23: 32, missed, 37 min
  6. at OKC, 2026-10-25: 27, hit, 36 min
  7. vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 19, hit, 26 min
  8. at MIN, 2026-10-30: 29, missed, 31 min
  9. at GS, 2026-11-01: 22, hit, 33 min
  10. vs TOR, 2026-11-02: 24, hit, 36 min
Under hitMissedThe 28.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 17.7–36.2 pts+ast.

Splits

Under 28.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 28.5 hit in 6 of 9 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 28.5 · L10

  • Rui HachimuraF

  • Keaton WaglerG

  • Brook LopezC

  • Jordan MillerGOut

  • Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Garland didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; pts+ast the last time Garland faced them: 13 (Nov 10, 2025)

Under 28.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 28.5

Average
25.7
−2.8 vs line
Median
25
−3.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −115
Books’ fair
51%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−7401 book—1/10
−2491 book—5/10
−1351 book+1051 book7/10
−1153 books−1153 books7/10
+1032 books−1351 book8/10
+2571 book—10/10
+6101 book—10/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 28.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 28.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 28.5Under 28.5
DraftKings14 min ago−115−114Best
Bovada14 min ago−115−115
FanDuel5 min ago−106Best−125
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:28 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

28.5

−120 → −115 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Darius Garland's full game log and splits